Index Option Trader

Archive: January Trade Commentary - January 15th 2008

January 24, 2008 – 2:01 pm
With the recent downturn in the market for yet another session, it’s looking like the SPY is going to pierce the lower breakeven price at 137.59. According to our rules, we have a standing conditional order for the autotraded positions to close the position out at the market if the SPY price violates the breakeven price. From a statistical perspective, this price movement (without any reversion to the mean price) is a rare event to say the least, but will happen from time to time. With disappointing Intel results, along with all of the other bearish news on the economic front, the indices dropped considerably after hours. The Asian session got off to a weak start, but has since drifted towards the upside. We will continue to monitor the futures overnight and into the morning for any signs up a correction to the upside. If selling pressure lasts into the pre-market ...

Posted in General Commentary | 1 Comment »

Archive: January Market Analysis Update

January 24, 2008 – 2:00 pm
As we wait for the market to enter into a prime entry zone for our January trade, I thought that I would reflect on the market conditions of late. As far as the first trading day of 2008, it was a complete downer to the tune of 220 points to the downside. A poor ISM report and nervous comments from the FOMC minutes aren't adding any positive marks to the bull's cause. In terms of economic reports, we have Auto Sales, ADP Employment, Jobless Claims and Factory Orders on Thursday and Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment, Hourly Earnings and ISM Services on Friday -- a few of which are market moving numbers. And if the volatility measure (VIX) wasn't high enough, add to the mix $100/barrel crude, record high gold prices, the ever popular credit crisis, and a slew of corporate earnings due in the coming weeks from names like CELG, STZ, ...

Posted in General Commentary | 1 Comment »

Archive: November 2007 Post Trade Commentary - Nov 12, 2007

January 24, 2008 – 1:59 pm
Our November SPY Iron Condor was filled at a debit of $0.47 to flatten our position. This is a $0.12 loss from our original fill at $0.35, resulting in a loss of 7.2%. Given this extremely volatile market, we're glad to flatten out at a very small loss without increasing the risk of the position. The market continues to move in a sideways fashion, yielding very unpredictable price movements. We will continue to watch the market but stand by our exit according to our trading plan. We don't subscribe to the 'shoulda, woulda, coulda' philosophy and are ready to start planning our next trade! We will continue to practice our emotion-free, probability based approach to trading and will issue our next trade in the near future. As this month marks our first realized loss, albeit small, it is important to see why we strongly advise proper money management. Also remember, ...

Posted in General Commentary | No Comments »

Archive: October 2007 Trade Commentary - Oct 11, 2007

January 24, 2008 – 1:58 pm
Just as I was writing this commentary for the October SPX and SPY trade, the news came across my wire that European Central Bank governing council member Axel Weber said the bank may need to raise interest rates to a level that restricts economic growth to keep inflation under control. As the news was coming across, I was writing about how the SPX was breaking out to the upside above its previous swing highs at the 1556 levels. This technical move known as a breakout, signaled that the SPX (and SPY) were, in effect, heading higher. When planning our spread for this month, we took into account the markets neutral to bullish sentiment and expected the SPX index price to move sideways to up around the 1570 to possibly the 1580 level by expiration, if bullish attitudes remained intact. We also took into account the fact that earning season was ...

Posted in General Commentary | No Comments »

Welcome to our new Index Option Trader Blog!

January 24, 2008 – 2:32 am
We have decided to switch over to WordPress as our previous blog over at Bullpoo was not cutting it. Subscribers have requested an RSS feed which Bullpoo did not offer. This will now be our permanent blog home. Stay tuned for our next entry.SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "Welcome to our new Index Option Trader Blog!", url: "http://www.indexoptiontrader.com/blog/2008/01/24/welcome-to-our-new-index-option-trader-blog/" });

Posted in General Commentary | No Comments »